Veros: Housing Market in Full Recovery Mode
National Mortgage Professional Magazine. Wed, 2013-01-02 14:49
Veros Real Estate Solutions has announced that analysis of its data shows compelling evidence that the national real estate market has hit bottom and is now in a full recovery. This is the conclusion of the company’s VeroFORECAST real estate market forecast for the 12-month period ending Dec. 1, 2013, updated quarterly and covering 975 counties, 335 metro areas, and 13,586 zip codes. The forecast update shows significant improvement on a national basis, indicating that on average the top 100 metro areas can expect 1.2 percent appreciation over the next 12 months. This is the second quarter in a row where this index has shown forecast appreciation. Highly notable is the re-emergence of several very strong market forecasts, with Phoenix appearing again as the top market with over 10 percent annual appreciation predicted. This is the first time since 2006 that Veros has forecast double-digit annual appreciation in any market. In addition, the depreciating markets are becoming less severe, with the worst markets in the -2 to -3 percent range, which is a typical level of depreciation of the poorest performing markets even during healthy market periods. For the first time since the recession began, on a national level, two-thirds of all markets are expected to either be flat or appreciating during the coming 12 months.
Phoenix, one of the markets hit hardest during the downturn, continues to show strength in this quarter's forecast, building on its top ranking from the past two quarters to be the market leading the recovery. This revival is a result of its drastically reduced housing supply, which has plummeted by 70 percent from its peak.
“Great affordability and low interest rates are also causing significant demand,” said Eric Fox, Veros’ vice president of statistical and economic modeling. “The low supply and high demand, in conjunction with the Phoenix area’s lower unemployment rate of 6.8 percent, compared to the national unemployment rate of 7.9 percent, sets the stage for it to be 2013’s top performing market.”
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